On Friday, February 27 at 17:00 Tehran time, the January Producer Price Index (PPI) report will be released. Producer prices are expected to increase by 0.3% compared to December, which represents a slowdown relative to the previous month. In the details of the inflation data, price pressures stemming from tariffs appear to be largely exhausted; this source of inflationary pressure seems to have had a one off effect, and due to declining inflation expectations, we do not expect continued price pressures from this component.
Attention is now more focused on services inflation. Supercore inflation increased by 0.6% in January, which is very high; however, part of this increase can be attributed to volatility and January price adjustments. In the details of the PCE data, we also observed price pressures in the services sector. As a result, expectations for interest rate cuts have decreased, and we expect interest rates to remain unchanged for a period.
Market Impact of the Data:
If producer inflation comes in above expectations, expectations for rate cuts decrease and the dollar strengthens. In this scenario, the euro and gold undergo a correction. However, gold’s reaction is likely to be limited.
If the data comes in below expectations, expectations for rate cuts increase and the dollar weakens. In this scenario, the market becomes slightly more risk on, which would be favorable for risk assets. Gold and the euro also strengthen slightly.

The weekly U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report will be released on Thursday at 17:00 (Iran time).
In the previous week, jobless claims declined, coming in slightly below market expectations. This decrease was largely attributed to employees returning to work following severe weather disruptions in prior weeks.
Despite workforce reductions announced by major corporations such as Amazon and UPS, the data indicate that these layoffs have not yet translated into broad based unemployment. Overall, the labor market remains relatively stable. However, the number of individuals continuing to receive unemployment benefits (Continuing Claims) increased to 1.86 million.
Market Impact of the Data:
Unemployment claims usually have a limited impact on the market, unless there is a significant deviation from expectations. If the data comes in above expectations, the dollar weakens and gold and the euro gain.
If the data comes in below expectations, the dollar strengthens and the euro, gold, and risk markets decline, because in this scenario expectations for an interest rate cut decrease.