Investment bank UBS, in its latest forecast, raised its gold price target for the first half of 2026 to 6200 dollars per ounce. The bank’s analysts cite geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, continued Federal Reserve rate cuts, and record central bank demand of 5000 tons as the main drivers of this increase. They also warned that by 2028 about 80 major mines worldwide will face resource depletion, a supply constraint that, alongside rising demand, will become the next engine for prices.

Donald Trump, in a post on his social network, denied reports claiming that General Daniel Caine, known as Razin, opposed war with Iran, calling them 100% false. He said that Caine, like everyone else, does not prefer war, but if ordered, believes the conflict would be easy to win. Referring to Caine’s role in operations against Iran’s nuclear program, Trump described him as a great fighter. The US president concluded by warning that he prefers an agreement with Iran over war, but if no agreement is reached, it will be a very bad day for Iran.

Trump delivered a 100 minute speech. Trump focused almost entirely on the economy in his State of the Union address and tried to present a very positive picture of current conditions. He said inflation is declining sharply, incomes are rising quickly, and the US economy is booming more than ever. He also emphasized that tariffs on imports will continue and argued that these tariffs can replace tax revenues.

Donald Trump claimed in his speech that Iran is reviving its nuclear program alongside negotiations with Washington and warned that if talks fail, the option of military action will be considered. Iranian officials rejected the claim, and Abbas Araghchi stressed that Iran’s nuclear program is purely peaceful and that Tehran will never seek nuclear weapons. At the same time as the negotiations, the United States has increased its military presence in the Middle East. Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency have not been able to verify the status of Iran’s near weapons grade uranium stockpiles for more than eight months. The uncertainty surrounding the true state of Iran’s nuclear activities and the continuation of negotiations has preserved an atmosphere of tension and uncertainty.