U.S. President Donald Trump announced that in exchange for the Indian Prime Minister’s agreement to stop purchasing oil from Russia, punitive tariffs on Indian goods will be reduced. Under this agreement, which was reached after a phone call between the two leaders, the overall tariff rate on Indian goods was reduced from 25 percent to 18 percent, and an additional 25 percent surcharge will also be removed. Trump claimed that India has reciprocally reduced its tariffs and non-tariff barriers against the United States to zero and will purchase more than 500 billion dollars worth of American products. Trump is also urging countries to buy oil from Venezuela instead of Iran and Russia, thereby putting pressure on his negotiating rivals.

Following news of the negotiations, the exchange rate of the dollar against the rial declined and is now trading in the 150,000 toman range. These negotiations are taking place while the United States is deploying a large fleet of warships to the region and issuing threats against Iran. Trump has warned that if no agreement is reached, bad things could happen. The United States has announced three main demands: a complete halt to uranium enrichment, restrictions on the ballistic missile program, and an end to support for proxy groups in the region. Iran considers these demands unacceptable but has declared its readiness to show flexibility on the enrichment issue, including the handover of 400 kilograms of enriched uranium and a halt to enrichment within the framework of a consortium. Iran emphasizes the removal of preconditions and the withdrawal of U.S. military assets away from its borders.

The Reserve Bank of Australia became the first major central bank in 2026 to raise interest rates, increasing the rate from 3.6 percent to 3.85 percent. This decision was aimed at containing persistent inflation, which remains above the target range of 2 to 3 percent. Although the bank’s governor refrained from outlining a clear future path for rates, today’s move signals policymakers’ concerns about sustained inflationary pressures in the Australian economy. During the session, the Australian dollar strengthened following the hawkish stance of Governor Bullock.

U.S. manufacturing activity expanded in January 2026 at its fastest pace since 2022. The Institute for Supply Management, ISM, manufacturing index rose to 52.6, indicating growth in new orders and higher production. This expansion followed nearly a year of contraction in the sector. Input prices increased and demand remained strong. The employment index also improved, although employment remains in contractionary territory. However, concerns persist regarding the impact of trade tariffs and high input costs on the sustainability of this trend.