

According to the New York Fed survey, U.S. consumer expectations for inflation and the labor market improved slightly in January. One-year inflation expectations fell to 3.1 percent and the probability of job loss decreased, while the likelihood of finding a new job rose to about 46 percent. These signs of relative labor market stability reinforced the Fed’s recent decision to hold interest rates steady after three consecutive rate cuts. However, long-term inflation expectations for three and five years remain unchanged at 3 percent

The US December retail sales report did not grow as expected and remained unchanged month-on-month, while the market had anticipated an increase of about 0.4 percent, The control group, which is the basis for calculating consumption in GDP, also fell 0.1 percent, showing weaker consumer momentum at the end of the year, Declines in sectors such as clothing, furniture, and autos were the main drivers of this performance, while signs of cost-of-living pressures and weak discretionary spending, especially among low-income households, were observed, Economists expect that tax refunds and wealth effects in early 2026 will partly support consumer demand despite this weakness.