The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to approve an interest rate hike to 3.85 percent this week, moving against the global trend. This shift in stance comes in response to stubborn inflation, an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate, and rising housing prices. This would be the first rate increase since November 2023. Stephen Miller, an investment strategist at GSFM, said, “Inflation is a clear risk, and addressing this risk now through an interest rate increase may be the most appropriate response. Failing to do so could require more aggressive use of interest rate tools in the future.” The final decision will be announced on Tuesday.

The minutes of the Bank of Japan indicate that the central bank has become more sensitive to the urgency of raising interest rates. These concerns are mainly driven by the weakening of the yen and its impact on inflation. Recent movements in the yen have challenged the downward trend in inflation, and one member emphasized that given the immediate priority of price stability, the bank should not spend too much time assessing the effects of rate hikes and should take the next step, a rate increase, without losing the appropriate timing. As a result, markets see a higher probability of an interest rate hike in April.

Following news of the negotiations, the exchange rate of the dollar against the rial declined and is now trading in the 150,000 toman range. These negotiations are taking place while the United States is deploying a large fleet of warships to the region and issuing threats against Iran. Trump has warned that if no agreement is reached, bad things could happen. The United States has announced three main demands: a complete halt to uranium enrichment, restrictions on the ballistic missile program, and an end to support for proxy groups in the region. Iran considers these demands unacceptable but has declared its readiness to show flexibility on the enrichment issue, including the handover of 400 kilograms of enriched uranium and a halt to enrichment within the framework of a consortium. Iran emphasizes the removal of preconditions and the withdrawal of U.S. military assets away from its borders.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that in exchange for the Indian Prime Minister’s agreement to stop purchasing oil from Russia, punitive tariffs on Indian goods will be reduced. Under this agreement, which was reached after a phone call between the two leaders, the overall tariff rate on Indian goods was reduced from 25 percent to 18 percent, and an additional 25 percent surcharge will also be removed. Trump claimed that India has reciprocally reduced its tariffs and non-tariff barriers against the United States to zero and will purchase more than 500 billion dollars worth of American products. Trump is also urging countries to buy oil from Venezuela instead of Iran and Russia, thereby putting pressure on his negotiating rivals.