Goldman Sachs has forecast that US inflation for February will be lower than market expectations, with core CPI rising about 0.17% month-on-month (below the 0.2% estimate) and annual core inflation at 2.42%. Falling prices for used cars, auto insurance, and moderation in housing inflation are the main factors softening price pressures, although tariffs may exert mild upward pressure. These data could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path and bond yields, while supporting risk assets.

UK consumer confidence, according to GfK, fell in February for the first time in three months to minus 19. Rising concerns about unemployment and cost of living pressures have made households less willing to make major purchases. Data show job insecurity, especially among young people, is increasing rapidly and nearly 1 million individuals aged 16 to 24 are out of work and education. Central bank policymakers, including Catherine Mann, are monitoring these developments when considering the timing of potential interest rate cuts.

Trump announced that the US is regaining real energy dominance with the opening of the first new oil refinery in 50 years in Brownsville, Texas. This $300 billion project, in partnership with the Indian company Reliance, will supply domestic markets, strengthen national security and US energy production, and create thousands of jobs. Trump described it as a major economic

US markets experienced sharp volatility while Brent crude traded near $90, with S&P 500 futures fluctuating between gains and losses and Oracle standing out with a 10% premarket rise. Tensions in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, including attacks on ships and threats from Iran, have pressured oil supply, and the International Energy Agency proposed releasing 400 million barrels of emergency oil. Investors are concerned about rising inflation and aggressive central bank responses, while JPMorgan has marked down loan values and imposed credit limits. February US inflation data will be closely watched on Wednesday to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path and pressure on risk assets.