According to an OPEC survey, the group’s oil output rose by 640,000 barrels per day last month to about 29.52 million barrels per day, with much of the increase coming from Saudi Arabia. The production boost occurred before the Iran-US/Israel conflict as regional tensions were rising. However, after disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, part of the Gulf countries’ production has been halted, keeping pressure on global oil markets.

The US strike on military targets on Kharg Island has raised concerns in oil markets, as the island handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. Trump said oil infrastructure was intentionally spared but warned that it could become a target if Iran disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts say any serious damage to the Kharg export terminal could disrupt Iran’s oil exports and push global oil prices even higher.

Ahead of key central bank meetings this week and with rising tensions in the Middle East, US stock futures edged higher while the dollar index slipped. Following US strikes on Iranian oil facilities on Kharg Island, Brent crude prices surged to $106.50 before stabilizing around $105. Gold fluctuated below $5,000.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has rejected Donald Trump's call for a ceasefire and intensified its missile and drone attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Following an Iranian drone strike on a fuel tank at Dubai Airport, flights were suspended for several hours, and the key oil port of Fujairah was targeted for the second time in three days. With the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed, Brent crude oil prices have surged past $105 per barrel, pushing the region closer to total chaos as tensions enter the seventeenth day of the war.