The oil market has started 2026 with a price surge, with Brent climbing above 72 dollars, largely driven by geopolitical risks and supply disruptions. Traders are rapidly hedging through futures and options markets due to the possibility of conflict involving Iran and Donald Trump. Concerns about the security of oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz and reduced supply in some countries have turned expectations of surplus into a tighter market. As a result, volatility has increased and analysts believe the geopolitical risk premium could push oil prices even higher.

PCE inflation in the United States increased more than expected in December, with the monthly core index reaching 0.4%, a development that could delay interest rate cuts. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, core inflation rose to 3.0% on an annual basis and remains above the 2% target. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics also points to continued stickiness in services inflation, although some components remain highly volatile. Economists, including Barclays analysts, believe this trend will likely prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting rates before June.

Donald Trump, the President of the United States, increased the tariff rate to 15 percent only one day after announcing a 10 percent tariff on imported goods. In a message posted on social media, he described the decision as a response to a recent Supreme Court ruling that found his administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs unlawful. The move has created new trade tensions and raised uncertainty about the timing of implementation. Given the cancellation of the government’s special authorities, experts see the legal path for these tariffs as challenging, and the issue is expected to become a central topic in the upcoming State of the Union address in Congress.

On the first trading day, markets turned risk averse amid uncertainty surrounding United States trade policy. US equity futures such as the S and P 500 and Nasdaq declined, and the dollar weakened against major currencies such as the yen and the euro. In contrast, gold and silver rose as safe haven assets, and Bitcoin fell by nearly 5 percent to below 65000 dollars. Asian markets, especially Hong Kong technology shares, performed positively on hopes of reduced tariff pressure on the region.