On the daily timeframe, the euro continued its downward trend over the past week and retraced toward the market order block within the 1.16766 - 1.17430 range.
Daily Timeframe – EUR/USD
On the daily timeframe, the euro continued its downward trend over the past week and retraced toward the market order block within the 1.16766 - 1.17430 range.
From a market structure perspective, this area is considered a potential demand zone, and price reaction to it will determine the scenario for the current week.
Primary Scenario (Higher Probability)
Last week, the price failed to close below the order block. Holding this area may indicate the absorption of sellers’ liquidity.
If buying pressure increases and signs of momentum shift are observed, the likelihood of a bullish corrective move will rise.
Price Target:
The previous minor high around 1.19288
Under this scenario, the market would enter a structural pullback phase, with focus placed on the breakout of short term highs.
Alternative Scenario (Lower Probability)
Over the past two weeks, selling pressure has been dominant. If a valid breakout of the order block occurs and price stabilizes below it, the bearish structure will be reinforced. Such a breakdown could trigger liquidity resting below the support zone.
Price Target:
The previous swing low around 1.15802
1 Hour Timeframe
1 Hour Timeframe – EUR/USD
On the 1 hour timeframe, price continued to move within a bearish structure (Lower High / Lower Low) over the past week, declining toward the 1.17425 level.
The prevailing momentum remains bearish, and the market is currently in a short term distribution phase.
More Probable Scenario
The bearish structure remains valid. If price stabilizes below the equal low zone, sell side liquidity is likely to be activated.
A confirmed breakout and consolidation below this area could act as a catalyst for the continuation of the downward move.
Price Target:
The 1.16762 level, corresponding to the 4 hour timeframe order block.
Under this scenario, the market would enter a new bearish leg completion phase, increasing the probability of printing lower lows and lower highs.
Alternative Scenario (Lower Probability)
If price, under buying pressure, fails to register a new lower low, the likelihood of a corrective phase increases. Failure to break previous lows may indicate liquidity absorption and weakening selling pressure.
Corrective Target:
The order block zone within the 1.18403 - 1.18464 range
In this case, the market would enter a structural pullback and could extend toward this rejection block area.