The pound experienced a significant decline over the past week. After rebalancing the Fair Value Gap (FVG) in the 1.35178–1.36296 range, price recovered part of this drop during Friday’s trading session and ultimately closed at the 1.36102 level.
Daily Timeframe – GBP/USD
The pound experienced a significant decline over the past week. After rebalancing the Fair Value Gap (FVG) in the 1.35178–1.36296 range, price recovered part of this drop during Friday’s trading session and ultimately closed at the 1.36102 level.
Primary Scenario (Higher Probability)
Considering that price has swept buy side liquidity and rebalanced the imbalance zone, if it manages to stabilize above the previous week’s level with a daily candle close, there is a possibility of a price rebound toward the prior high.
Key Price Levels:
Last week’s high: 1.37332
Alternative Scenario (Lower Probability)
In the event of a renewed price decline, if the market records a daily close below the FVG zone, the likelihood of a bearish move toward the order block increases.
If the order block is broken to the downside, a deeper decline toward the sell side liquidity zone would become probable.
Key Price Levels:
Order Block: 1.32962 – 1.33561
Rejection Block: 1.31773 – 1.32090
Sell Side Liquidity Zone: 1.30102
1 Hour Timeframe
1 Hour Timeframe – GBP/USD
The pound was in a strong bearish structure and declined into the higher timeframe market order block zone (1.35162–1.35316). After absorbing liquidity in this area, it recovered part of last week’s decline and is currently fluctuating around the 1.36102 level.
Primary Scenario (Bullish)
If price can establish itself above the 1.36148 level with a confirmed candle close, there is a possibility of a price increase toward the Fair Value Gap (FVG) to fill it.
Key Price Levels:
Market Structure Shift (MSS): 1.36148
Fair Value Gap (FVG): 1.36672 – 1.36875
Structure Shift Zone: 1.37331
Alternative Scenario (Bearish)
Second Scenario (Bearish):
Given that price remains within a bearish structure and selling pressure persists, there is a possibility of a decline toward the HTF OB (higher timeframe order block) zone.
If price manages to break below this zone, the likelihood of a corrective move toward the next swing area around the 1.33996 level increases.
Key Price Levels:
HTF OB (Higher Timeframe Order Block): 1.35162 – 1.35316
Next Swing Zone: 1.33996