On the daily timeframe, gold price has fluctuated within a range between $4,878 – $5,091 over the past week. These movements, driven by the inability of price to produce a decisive breakout from either boundary, have resulted in visible price compression within this range.
Daily Timeframe – XAU/USD
On the daily timeframe, gold price has fluctuated within a range between $4,878 – $5,091 over the past week.
These movements, driven by the inability of price to produce a decisive breakout from either boundary, have resulted in visible price compression within this range.
Main Scenario (Higher Probability)
Price has stabilized above the $5,000 level. This area acts as a key technical and psychological support zone. If buying pressure continues and the upper boundary of the range is broken, the probability of a move toward higher highs increases.
Bullish Price Target:
Zone around $5,300
Under this scenario, the ultimate objective would be a move toward levels above $5,300.
Alternative Scenario (Lower Probability)
If price falls back below the $5,000 level and comes under renewed selling pressure, there is a possibility of a breakdown below $4,878. Such a move could shift the broader structure to bearish and initiate a new downside leg.
Bearish Price Target:
Zone around $4,655
1 Hour Timeframe
1 Hour Timeframe – XAU/USD
On the 1 hour timeframe, gold remained in a range structure throughout the past week. After reacting to the $4,850 zone and sweeping liquidity, order flow shifted to bullish. Price subsequently broke above the previous high range.
Ultimately, gold closed above the $5,074 level, signaling a short term trend shift in favor of buyers.
Main Scenario (Higher Probability)
The breakout and consolidation above the $5,074 level, which previously acted as resistance, indicates continued buying pressure. If buyer support persists and price holds above this zone, further upside expansion is likely.
Bullish Price Target:
Zone around $5,121, identified as the major high on the 4 hour timeframe.
Under this scenario, continuation toward a new high is probable, with the market expected to maintain its bullish trajectory.
Alternative Scenario (Lower Probability)
If price encounters selling pressure around the $5,100 level and fails to maintain consolidation above this area, a potential shift back to a bearish move may occur. This selling pressure could lead to a breakdown of the $5,048 support zone.
Bearish Price Target:
Zone around $5,000 as a corrective objective.
In this case, the market enters a corrective phase and may move toward lower levels before resuming its broader trajectory.