Global Gold Analysis (Daily Time Frame)
As outlined in last week’s main scenario, gold broke above the $2,887 resistance level, reaching a new all-time high of $2,942. However, after hitting this level, selling pressure increased significantly, leading to a strong bearish candle on the last trading day, resulting in a 630-pip drop, closing at $2,882.
- Main Scenario (Higher Probability):
Given the strong bearish daily close, the downward move is likely to continue. However, before this, a short-term pullback might occur before further decline. The first downside target is $2,864, followed by $2,834. - Alternative Scenario (Lower Probability):
If gold reverses from current levels and engulfs at least 50% of the last bearish daily candle, it could regain strength and aim for its previous high at $2,940.
Gold Analysis (4-Hour Time Frame)
- Main Scenario:
Since gold has broken its previous support at $2,906, it is expected to complete a pullback before resuming its decline toward the next support at $2,864. - Alternative Scenario:
If buyers gain strength and engulf the last two bearish candles, gold could reverse and attempt to form a new high.
Gold Analysis (15-Minute Time Frame)
- Main Scenario:
A short-term upward retracement toward $2,887 or $2,893 is expected before gold resumes its downward movement. The first downside target is $2,864. - Alternative Scenario:
If gold stabilizes above $2,893, it could extend its upward movement toward $2,906 as the next target.