Retail spending in New Zealand grew beyond forecasts, signaling continued economic recovery at the end of 2025. According to Statistics New Zealand data, real sales increased by 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter, above economists’ estimate of 0.6 percent. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has stated that the interest rate cutting cycle has ended and that it currently has no plans to raise rates, a factor that could support consumption. Westpac economists say spending growth has been concentrated in discretionary goods and tourism, while labor market weakness remains a risk to the continuation of this trend.

Goldman Sachs, in an apparently contradictory move, raised its oil price forecast for the end of 2026 by 6 dollars to 60 dollars for Brent and 56 dollars for WTI. The bank cited an unexpected decline in OECD inventories as the reason for the upgrade, but emphasized that the outlook for excess supply next year remains intact. However, Goldman warned about downside risks from the potential removal of sanctions on Iran and Russia, which could reduce prices by 5 to 8 dollars. In its 2027 outlook, the bank projected an average Brent price of 65 dollars.

Goldman Sachs economists, referring to the Supreme Court’s cancellation of the IEEPA tariffs, expect the inflationary effects of tariffs to decline. According to the bank’s estimate, tariffs imposed since April have added 0.7 percent to core inflation, PCE, but the pace of transmission has slowed. Goldman Sachs emphasized that only another 0.1 percent will be added to underlying inflation from this point, describing the final impact on consumer prices as minor.

Donald Trump, reacting to the Supreme Court decision that limited his tariff authority, said in a sharply worded statement that the court had unintentionally given him more power as president. He said he can now use licenses to take action against countries that, in his view, have taken advantage of the United States. Trump also expressed concern about the court’s upcoming ruling on birthright citizenship and warned that if the outcome is not in his favor, it will benefit China and other countries.