Dow Jones Analysis (Daily Time Frame)
As mentioned in last week’s primary scenario, the Dow Jones index experienced a sharp downward move after breaking the support level at 44,100, dropping to around 43,400 as previously indicated.
Primary Scenario (Higher Likelihood):
Considering the strength, momentum, and ATR of the last candle, it is expected that the decline will continue. However, note that before further downward movement, a temporary upward correction might occur—potentially reaching the 43,800 or even 44,100 levels—before the decline resumes toward 42,190.
Alternate Scenario (Lower Likelihood):
If the Dow Jones finds support in the current zone (between 43,100 and 43,380) and buyer strength prevails, the index could move upward after surpassing the 43,800 and 44,118 levels, targeting resistance at 44,800, then 50,090, and possibly even higher new highs.
Dow Jones Analysis (4-Hour Time Frame)
Primary Scenario:
Given the steepness of the decline, the current trend is likely to persist. The index is expected to undergo a temporary corrective rally from its current important zone (between 43,100 and 43,380) up to levels around 43,800 or 44,100 before continuing its descent to lower levels.
Alternate Scenario:
If the current support proves very strong and the Dow Jones moves upward with powerful candles—managing to stabilize above 44,246—the index could then head toward higher targets and even form new highs.
Dow Jones Analysis (15-Minute Time Frame)
Primary Scenario:
Considering the significant support zone where the Dow Jones is positioned and the completion of its two-legged decline, a temporary upward reversal is expected. Although this reversal might initially be range-bound and form a reversal pattern, if it manages to hold above 43,520, the next targets would be around 43,844 and 44,080.
Alternate Scenario:
If selling pressure intensifies such that the current support zone (between 43,389 and 43,100) fails to hold, the index could continue its downward move toward the 42,190 level.