Switzerland’s economy returned to positive territory at the end of last year with 0.2% growth in Q4, partially offsetting the heavy tariff shock imposed by Donald Trump. However, weak service growth and an almost stagnant industrial sector meant overall performance fell slightly below economists’ forecasts. The strong franc and pressure on export-oriented companies remain a significant risk and may even lead the Swiss National Bank to consider reintroducing negative interest rates. Overall, annual economic growth reached 1.4%, but signs of layoffs and rising uncertainty are visible in the coming months.

Japan’s economic growth in the final quarter of 2025 was much weaker than expected, with GDP growing only 0.2% annually; this highlights the fragility of domestic demand and the inflation pressure on households. The weak growth is likely temporary and the overall economy and supportive policies remain unchanged. Meanwhile, Japan’s yield curve has steepened, as concerns about the government’s fiscal situation have increased long-term bond yields, and expectations of later rate hikes have lowered short-term yields. This steepening of the yield curve cannot be taken as a signal of economic boom

Indirect talks between Iran and the United States in Geneva ended with what was described as good progress, and the two sides agreed on a set of guiding principles to continue negotiations and exchange draft proposals. Abbas Araghchi said the path of the talks is positive, but a quick agreement is unlikely. Meanwhile, Trump called for an immediate deal and warned that tougher options would be considered if diplomacy fails. The main disagreements still revolve around the nuclear program, sanctions, and missile and regional issues.

Federal Reserve officials say they are assessing the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy, but there is still no clear sign of a fundamental shift in macroeconomic data. Daly stressed that AI’s effect on productivity will take time and that policymakers must closely monitor detailed data. At the same time, Austan Goolsbee said that if inflation returns toward the 2% target, several rate cuts could occur in 2026. After three rate cuts in late 2025, the Fed is currently taking a wait and see approach while evaluating inflation and growth data.